The Ord Oracle August 22, 2023
SPX Monitoring Purposes: Neutral.
Gain since 12/20/22=15.50%
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We updated this chart from yesterday, when we said, “panic only forms at bottoms in the market; no panic, no bottom. We look at the TRIN to help us find when panic is present. The bottom window is the 5-day average of the TRIN, and the next higher window is the 10-day average. The 5-day TRIN being greater than 1.50, and the 10-day TRIN being greater than 1.20, suggests there is enough panic in the market to form a bottom. The 5-day TRIN stands at 1.00 and the 10 day at 1.01; TRIN readings are not high enough to suggest a worthwhile low is forming here. The QQQ was down four days in a row going into Friday, which predicts the market will be lower within five days 73% of the time. The current bounce is not expected to go far. The next lower low could produce a good setup.” Added to the above, the blue lines shows the times when both the 5- and 10-day trin reached bullish levels. Currently, the 5-day TRIN stands at .92 and the 10-day at 1.00; not near bullish levels.
Last Friday, the QQQ and SPX where down four days in a row (SPY was down 3 days in a row), which predicts the market will be lower within five days 73% of the time. The chart above goes back late 2022 and shows the times when the QQQ was down four days in a row. New short-term lows may be seen in the coming days. Will need the 5- and 10-day TRIN readings to reach bullish levels before a bullish setup will be triggered. A longer-term view is that market may reach new highs going into year-end.